Completed Bets
for Don Geddis

This occurred during one of the Go matches. Full details are available there.

Full details are available here.

Win Ark says that Lyoto will win via KO or TKO (if I give him 4:1 odds). If so, Win gets a Machida walk-out t-shirt (~$40). If Shogun wins (by any means), or there is a decision (for either fighter), then Don gets 8oz Truffles (~$10). If Lyoto wins by submission, or some other thing happens (e.g. No Contest), then the bet is a draw. Result: Shogun by KO 3:35 R1, Don wins.

Win Ark bets ($1) that GSP will win by submission. Don gives 10:1 odds (hence risks $10) that either BJ will win, or else GSP will win by some method other than submission (e.g. decision or KO). Result: GSP wins by BJ's corner conceding after the fourth round. Hence, Don wins $1.

Lyoto Machida is an MMA fighter with a karate background (and also a BJJ black belt). He's fighting the ground & pound wrestler Tito Ortiz, who was the #1 ranked light-heavyweight a few years ago. Tito's nearing the end of his career. Ryoto is undefeated so far, but most of his fights have been against substandard competition, and until recently he usually won via a "boring" judge's decision. I'm taking Tito, and Win Ark is taking Ryoto (against anyone!). Stakes: Win wants two 8.8oz cans of Blue Lavazza ground espresso; I'll take a 1lb box of See's Truffles. I consider this a 50/50 bet; very hard to call the winner. Result: Lyoto wins a clear 3-round decision (and thus Win wins the bet).

Don: Obama will win the US Presidential election held on November 4, 2008. Bill ("gichoke"/"sportfighter") Mahoney: Obama will not win. Stakes: $100. Public declaration on the Usenet newsgroup rec.martial-arts. Result: Obama (and thus Don) wins in a landslide, 365 electoral votes to 173. (Although not important, the popular vote was 52.7% for Obama, to 46.0% for McCain.)

Fedor Emelianenko (world #1 ranked heavyweight MMA fighter) vs. Matt Lindland (olympic silver medal in wrestling, top middleweight MMA fighter). St. Petersburg, Russia. Fedor destroys everybody, outstriking the strikers (e.g. Cro Cop), and outgrappling the grapplers (e.g. Minotauro). And a guy more than a weight class below him is going to be a threat? I don't think so. But Ben "Dude" Curson bet me $20, and Arash bet me $50, that Lindland will win. With just even odds. Unbelievable. Result: Fedor won by armbar at 2:58 of R1. I win again.

I bet $50 on Liddell to repeat, against Arash who is betting on Tito. The main talk is that Liddell might be getting bored with winning all the time, and Ortiz is "hungry". But just looking at the skills on paper, Liddell is a bad matchup for Tito. Tito's only strategy is ground & pound, but Liddell is extremely difficult to take down (or to keep down if you manage to get him down), and his striking is far, far better than Tito's. Unless Liddell gets very lazy and just doesn't bother to train, this should be another easy victory, just like the first matchup. Result: 3rd RD TKO, Don wins.

Batata wanted a rematch from the UFC 60 bet, and had jumped on the Hughes bandwagon. But this time I thought GSP had the edge, despite the dominance Hughes had shown as long-time UFC champion. GSP was winning their first matchup (before getting caught) when he was new to MMA. And GSP had recently dominated Frank Trigg -- even in the wrestling! -- who is almost Hughes-quality as a wrestler. Result: GSP by R2 KO. I win (and Batata loses again).

Following some theoretical discussion about efficient market theory, Winfred Ark bet me that Genetech (DNA) would outperform the market averages over the next year. On 9/22/2005, DNA was $88/share (market cap $94B); DJ 10442, NASDAQ 2111, S&P500 1215. On 9/22/2006 DNA was $78 ($83B); DJ 11508, NASDAQ 2219, S&P500 1314. I won, Win lost. Stakes: loser displays a photo of winner prominently on their mantel for a year.

Royce Gracie vs. Matt Hughes, May 27, 2006, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA. I've been a fan of Royce since the first UFC, and trained in BJJ myself since 1994. That said, Hughes had all the advantages in this matchup. I bet $100 (in two bets, vs. Arash and vs. Batata) that Hughes will win. Result: Hughes dominated and won easily, and I won the bets.

Full details are available here.

In April 2002, Overture (since acquired by Yahoo) filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Google. I bet $25 that Google would never pay a significant amount of money. I lost this bet.